Russia on Friday sent three MiG-31 fighter jets into Estonian airspace for around 12 minutes without flight plans or active transponders, according to Tallinn’s defence ministry. NATO scrambled Italian F-35s to intercept the aircraft, which had flown roughly five miles inside Estonia near Vaindloo Island in the Gulf of Finland before returning to Russian territory.
Estonia called the action “unprecedented” and summoned Moscow’s chargé d’affaires to lodge a formal protest. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said it was the fourth Russian airspace violation this year but the first involving three combat aircraft at once, describing it as “a brazen escalation.” Prime Minister Kristen Michal announced that Tallinn will trigger NATO’s Article 4 consultations to discuss collective security measures.
The same day, two other Russian planes reportedly carried out a low pass over a Polish-owned oil platform in the Baltic Sea, breaching its safety zone and prompting alerts from Polish armed forces.
Senior Western figures said the incidents illustrate Moscow’s efforts to probe NATO’s response and exploit what one called “the grey zone” between peace and armed conflict. Former RAF deputy commander Air Marshal Greg Bagwell argued on X (formerly Twitter) that the alliance should publicly define and enforce “red lines” — potentially including the use of lethal force after clear warnings — to deter future incursions.
MI6 chief Sir Richard Moore meanwhile accused President Vladimir Putin of trying to impose “imperial will by all means at his disposal.” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the flights “an extremely dangerous provocation” and urged stronger European defence coordination. Lithuanian officials warned that NATO’s northeastern flank is being “tested for a reason” and stressed the need for credible consequences.
This is not the first such episode: Kremlin drones recently penetrated more than 100 miles into Poland and crossed Romanian airspace, exposing gaps in allied air defence. Analysts say the shift from unmanned drones to manned, missile-armed aircraft marks a notable escalation.
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are among Ukraine’s staunchest supporters and are widely regarded as potential targets should Russia risk a direct confrontation with NATO. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the latest incident as “outrageous” and called for a “systemic, collective and individual” response from Western states.
